87 replies to this topic

[mariner]

Most "battery breakthrough" stories I treat with strong skepticism but Toyota are a very serious and conservative company so this may be real 

 

https://www.theguard...h-electric-cars

 

 

[GreenMachine]

1200km range, 10min charge     Those charging cables better be good ... 

[jcbc3]

Yeah, just 600km in 20 minutes would be awesome

[Bloggsworth]

Maybe they've discovered the constituents of the Clarendon Dry Pile...

Edited by Bloggsworth, 05 July 2023 - 09:52.

[Ben1445]

My only words of caution are that we've been here before with Toyota.

 

In 2014 they said solid state would be available in 2020

 

In 2017 that became 2022

 

In 2020 it became 2025

 

Now in 2023 they're saying 2027 

[jcbc3]

Its a downward trajectory of future years though:

 

6

5

5

4

 

At some point we'll get there!

[404KF2]

I could go for that....the solid state in particular sounds promising.

[MikeTekRacing]

Most "battery breakthrough" stories I treat with strong skepticism but Toyota are a very serious and conservative company so this may be real 

 

https://www.theguard...h-electric-cars

People forget they promised the same battery with vehicles in  2020 and 2023 I think.

Sounds like vaporware to show they haven't missed the train completely.

 

this is from 2017 https://arstechnica....22-reports-say/

 

Same news

https://techcrunch.c...o-cars-by-2020/

Edited by MikeTekRacing, 05 July 2023 - 21:00.

[404KF2]

That's OK, my newest car only has 335,000 km on it and is only 16 years old. I can wait.

[Magoo]

Hats off to Toyota. It takes a brave company to predict a technical breakthrough four years in the future. 

[MikeTekRacing]

Hats off to Toyota. It takes a brave company to predict a technical breakthrough four years in the future. 

the already predicted the future wrongly twice so don't hold your breath

[MikeTekRacing]

That's OK, my newest car only has 335,000 km on it and is only 16 years old. I can wait.

everyone can wait.

The market won't

[404KF2]

People need to take care of what they have and not clamour for the latest and coolest. In time, it will come.

[Ross Stonefeld]

the already predicted the future wrongly twice so don't hold your breath

 

Should we list all the Musk/Tesla claims 

[Magoo]

Should we list all the Musk/Tesla claims 

 

The Teslerati don't care. The next Tesla is like the next Taylor Swift album. It will get here when it gets here. 

[404KF2]

I'm looking forward to both with equal enthusiasm.

[Charlieman]

The next Tesla is like the next Taylor Swift album. 

Isn't the next new Tesla the Cybertruck-up? Do you think she has put on weight too?

[Magoo]

Among the Teslarati, part of their forgiving nature  in overlooking product delays is due to fanboy-ism, no doubt.

 

But there is also a recognition that Tesla launches are not like ordinary auto industry product rollouts. There are actually new things being developed. They're not just slapping a new fascia on the previous model. 

[Greg Locock]

I must admit I'm looking forward  to the Cybertruck coming out, it'll be interesting to see how much of the prototype remains.

[se7en_24]

Should we list all the Musk/Tesla claims 

Hats off to Elon though - he even manages to get people to pay extra for optional features that don't exist yet. Toyota need to crack that one.

[Grippy]

not Toyota  but a Japanese Co. with potential new tech.   (Mods - please move if there is a more appropriate thread)

 

https://cleantechnic...lls-or-modules/

24M Introduces Electrode-To-Pack Battery With No Individual Cells Or Modules

".... “The 24M Electrode To Pack (ETOP) system is a streamlined battery pack system that features electrodes packaged directly into the battery pack, removing the need for individual cells and modules.”...."

 

The article is interesting albeit without tech details. VW Group bought a 25% stake in the Co. last year, and the reporter feels the claims are probably more valid than some others.

 

Also this

 

https://www.scienced...31027165855.htm

"New battery technology could lead to safer, high-energy electric vehicles Engineering researchers develop way to prevent damage that plagues next-gen lithium batteries Date: October 27, 2023 Source: University of Maryland Summary: Researchers studying how lithium batteries fail have developed a new technology that could enable next-generation electric vehicles (EVs) and other devices that are less prone to battery fires while increasing energy storage. "

[Bloggsworth]

I must admit I'm looking forward  to the Cybertruck coming out, it'll be interesting to see how much of the prototype remains.

Deliveries to start at the end of November............................. So they say. I'll believe that when I see it,

[MikeTekRacing]

There's plenty of them in testing. It's pretty clear it's coming out sooner than later

[Magoo]

The demonstrations of the Cybertruck getting shot up with a Thompson submachine gun and a compound bow are sort of interesting or something, but I would like to see more info on the production vehicle's specifications and road performance. 

[Magoo]

If I am following Toyota's messaging correctly, the automaker is investing many billions to develop advanced EVs that will obsolete all existing electric and ICE vehicles, while also asserting that EVs are impractical for consumer use and the market is failing to materialize, just as the company predicted all along. The strategy may be too complicated and nuanced for me to fully comprehend. 

Edited by Magoo, 01 November 2023 - 22:46.

[Bob Riebe]

If I am following Toyota's messaging correctly, the automaker is investing many billions to develop advanced EVs that will obsolete all existing electric and ICE vehicles, while also asserting that EVs are impractical for consumer use and the market is failing to materialize, just as the company predicted all along. The strategy may be too complicated and nuanced for me to fully comprehend. 

I still remember , probably early seventies, when while reading an article, probably in an over seas based magazine I got at Shinder's book store, that Toyota does not make cars, they assemble cars with parts they farm out to other parts producers.

 

I wonder if this still is partly true.

[MikeTekRacing]

If I am following Toyota's messaging correctly, the automaker is investing many billions to develop advanced EVs that will obsolete all existing electric and ICE vehicles, while also asserting that EVs are impractical for consumer use and the market is failing to materialize, just as the company predicted all along. The strategy may be too complicated and nuanced for me to fully comprehend. 

they are clueless on this topic

[gruntguru]

Really???

[Bikr7549]

I still remember , probably early seventies, when while reading an article, probably in an over seas based magazine I got at Shinder's book store, that Toyota does not make cars, they assemble cars with parts they farm out to other parts producers.

 

I wonder if this still is partly true.

 

Has that become the way companies do things? 

[GreenMachine]

Whodathortit?

[Magoo]

My take is that due to its vast size, Toyota is extremely conservative, slow to react, and highly allergic to risk. Preservation of capital is everything. 

 

Realistically, the smart move for Toyota is to follow the EV trend rather than try to get to the front. It can afford to wait and see where things shake out, as long as it doesn't wait too long. 

[Greg Locock]

"Has that become the way companies do things? "Very much so. There was a fad in the 90s that involved outsourcing all sub assembly work, so our assembly lines became a simpler layout with 'modules' coming in JIT from suppliers. When I was a lad a car was built more or less at the side of the assembly line from nuts and bolts and components. When I started at Ford in 1990 we built the seats in sync with the bodies, later on they were shipped in from Lear or whoever. We used to mount tires to wheels and balance them, that went to a facility over the road owned by somebody else (I'd add that those two subassembly processes were a pleasure to get rid of). We used to hang the spring and shock from the car and then assemble the arms and cross member, then went to a complete front suspension module, and a complete rear suspension module. The single biggest disaster on any assembly line is the IP, to the extent that Opel developed an entire drop in firewall/crossbeam with a debugged IP ready to plug in. I think they called it Cockpit2. Brilliant for assembly, not great for the structure.

 

I think you can argue whether that was a good thing, in my mind the unequivocally bad thing was handing over the design responsibility to the suppliers. That meant giving them a lot of corporate knowledge. But perhaps society as whole benefited. We'd always had specialist suppliers such as the automatic gearbox designers, they were a law unto themselves, but a car company should be able to design its own engines and suspensions and so on, not rely on outside parties.

/rant

Edited by Greg Locock, 02 November 2023 - 02:27.

[Greg Locock]

Toyota is a weird company. Cressida, LS400, MR2, and especially Prius  are absolute moonshots that paid off (well, maybe not MR2). 

[404KF2]

Yeah that one was Shitty 

[cbo]

If I am following Toyota's messaging correctly, the automaker is investing many billions to develop advanced EVs that will obsolete all existing electric and ICE vehicles, while also asserting that EVs are impractical for consumer use and the market is failing to materialize, just as the company predicted all along. The strategy may be too complicated and nuanced for me to fully comprehend.

It makes sense to me. Toyota is fully committed to the internal combustion engine -whatever fuel it runs on - and will do whatever it takes to protect that "vision".

Part of that strategy is to make people wait to buy electric by creating mirages of future "Wunderbatteries", the other part is to highlight real and perceived disadvantages of EVs.

Even if Toyota's vision of the future proves to be incorrect, this double-sided strategy will buy the company more time to get their EV designs sorted out. They need it, because they do not appear to be able to make an effective electric driveline at the moment.

Toyota seems to be into that sort of manipulative and rather crude strategic schemes. Like trying to peddle their hybrids as smart "self-charging" hybrids as opposed to plug-in hybrids....😄

[rl1856]

I think most level headed parties understand that EV will not gain true consumer market share until range exceeds 300 miles/ 500km in real world conditions, 80% or better recharge takes less than 10min, and charging stations are nearly as ubiquitous as gas stations / universal charging plug and capacity standards.   My friends that own EV report 200miles / 350 km at best, in real world conditions / several hrs to achieve 80% recharge / have to plan trips very carefully or return to base every day / are frustrated when finding a "public" charging station that has an incompatible plug interface.

 

EV will (I predict) have significant impact on commercial and mass transit vehicles,  Route vehicles (busses, delivery, short range trucking etc) are ideal for EV conversion.  Everyone points to private vehicles as the main contributor to noxious emissions, however commercial and route vehicles contribute vastly higher amounts of noxious emission each day.  But focusing on commercial / professional conversion instead of private removes the potential to control human behavior which is a debate for another time.....  

[Magoo]

By far the biggest obstacle ro the widespread adoption of EVS is the failure of the legacy automakers to execute, especially the US manufacturers. 

 

Their poorly developed and overpriced products only feed  the other problem: the common narrative that EVs are not ready for prime time. 

[Magoo]

Maybe Toyota will haul out another hydrogen ICE (outsouced from Yamaha) while once again broadly hinting that it could be a possible alternative to EVs. 

 

You know, it's not easy to develop a 400 hp hydrogen ICE. You have to start with an 800 hp gasoline ICE. 

[Magoo]

Zone processing and the software defined vehicle cannot be achieved without a much greater degree of vertical integration, and competitive EVs can't be produced without them. The capabilities have to be dragged back in-house. 

[MikeTekRacing]

My take is that due to its vast size, Toyota is extremely conservative, slow to react, and highly allergic to risk. Preservation of capital is everything. 

 

Realistically, the smart move for Toyota is to follow the EV trend rather than try to get to the front. It can afford to wait and see where things shake out, as long as it doesn't wait too long. 

Leaders are always in a tough position during possible inflection points. The issue for them is they cannot fail, and all their challengers can fail as often as possible - only to get right once and win the game. 

Since they are leading ICE they have all the interest in the world in keeping the status quo and are not interested in a huge reset. They have the knowledge, the quality, the processes - so they will do anything to keep that at an advantage.

There are lots of examples of leaders in an industry becoming irelevant once they miss the train - and it's always clear in hindsight, but if you put yourself in their shoes it's not always that simple. Nokia is always the best example. Disrupted by a company that made 0 phones before

[Greg Locock]

"They need it, because they do not appear to be able to make an effective electric driveline at the moment." Toyota have been mass producing high quality electric drivetrains for longer than any other manufacturer. The fact they have an engine tacked on makes it /more/ difficult not less.

[MikeTekRacing]

"They need it, because they do not appear to be able to make an effective electric driveline at the moment." Toyota have been mass producing high quality electric drivetrains for longer than any other manufacturer. The fact they have an engine tacked on makes it /more/ difficult not less.

that's both true wrong on so many levels

Their electric driveline PLUS an ICE is top class...best in the world...but making a competitive EV (technical AND cost wise) is a lot more than just removing the ICE from the hybrid. 

They current EV offering is p!ss poor and their focus is on lots of smokescreens...

"Look we lead hydrogen" - don't buy yet EVs, wait for this

"Look we lead solid state battery" - don't buy yet this crap, ours will be the thing

"Look at our hybrids! That's the way to go" - don't buy any EV, let me trick you in selling you another hybrid

 

All of their messages want to make their customers EV sceptic through different paths - because they can't advertise their sh!t electric offering and make it compelling

[Greg Locock]

Given that Tesla's newest motor uses the same architecture as Toyota's that seems a bit negative.

[cbo]

There is lot of difference between building a hybrid and building an EV. In particular if you only have limited experience with plug-in hybrids.

I'm sure that Toyota can build a decent electrical motor, but that is hardly the problem in EV design.

Hybrid batteries need hardly any managing while an EV battery is a much more complicated item, needing temperature control, preconditioning etc. to be effective.
Then there is the issue of charging, where the hybrid battery chargers at a few kwh and the EV at 100-200 kwh.
Then you have the software needed to control input and output effectively.

Beyond the drivelinie, you have electrical heating, navigation software that can plan your charging etc.

Toyota's EV have so far fallen flat on their faces in most of these areas. Think what you may about Tesla (I am not a fan!), but they have these EV specific items covered, with the rest of the EV manufacturers playing catch up and Toyota really struggling.

[MikeTekRacing]

Given that Tesla's newest motor uses the same architecture as Toyota's that seems a bit negative.

again, this is legacy thinking.

a good EV is NOT a good normal car where you swap out powertrains (or driveline).

That kind of thinking is what gives legacy auto the head scratchers like now.

 

Think about F1 - when rules change - the best designs start from scratch to fully exploit the new possibilities. If you just adapt your car you are in no man's land. That's why the leaders always try to keep the status quo and the challengers always ask for rule changes. Reset can only help the challengers

[gruntguru]

they are clueless on this topic

Gee whiz Toyota must be dumb. World's biggest carmaker employing tens of thousands of engineers. One would think at least they have the resources to reverse engineer a Tesla or two?

 

again, this is legacy thinking.

a good EV is NOT a good normal car where you swap out powertrains (or driveline).

That kind of thinking is what gives legacy auto the head scratchers like now.

Actually when Toyota designed the Prius they did exactly what you suggest - started from scratch and began the dominance of hybrid technology that has persisted to this day. Their strategy in the EV space will probably take us all by surprise once revealed.

Edited by gruntguru, 05 November 2023 - 01:38.

[Magoo]

Given that Tesla's newest motor uses the same architecture as Toyota's that seems a bit negative.

 

I don't believe that is true in any significant way. 

[Magoo]

Many have been surprised, not to say disappointed, with the Toytota BZ4X EV. Underwhelming is a frequent description. 

 

Some have actually theorized that the vehicle was engineered to be inadequate.

 

Others, more charitably, suppose it was designed to be familiar and comfortable to current Toyota owners. 

[Greg Locock]

https://youtu.be/esUb7Zy5Oio?t=643

Edited by Greg Locock, 06 November 2023 - 00:15.

[Magoo]

Toyota did not originate the IPM by any means, and there is no particular reason to presume that Telsa was inspired by Toyota. The Tesla motor is considerably more advanced, for  one thing.